Do polls actually predict election results? #finsubito agevolazioni

1. The answer is "yes." And also "no."

2. So anyway what the hell happened this time

3. He says while wearing a Mr.Breast shirt

4. Trump won all States.

5. The 2024 election was Kinda close. But not a landslide victory 🖐️.

   11/6/2024

6. So polls are useless. Got it.

7. So much for Allan Lichtman

8. They predict them better then you 😂😂

9. Here from the future to say the polls were so wrong

10. MR BREAST give me money🔥🔥🔥

11. I am from Austria and in 10 days I will vote for the 3. time this year and I am only 17. (I voted in the EU election, national election and will vote in the regional election in my state.)

12. So polls can for sure tells us…. that people voted… maybe. I mean, who's to say anything really?

13. The same website you used for the trump Harris poll has Harris leading nationally, but trump leading in enough swing states to win. So we might get another winner by electoral votes instead of popular

14. i'd object. what if harris or trump get an election day blowout and best their polls? obama was underestimated due to failing to account for the black vote.

15. Dt

16. Good call

17. ALL public polling is far left biased, because those are the people doing the polling.

18. Also people need to understand that national Presidential polls can only predict popular vote, not the electoral vote. If the Democrat is not leading by a MINIMUM of six percentage points, do NOT try to predict a Democratic victory. The same is true if the Republican is not leading by a MINIMUM of three percentage points for the Republicans. Why is that? There is slightly more than a two percentage point by advantage for the Republicans in the electoral college and most national polls have slightly more than a 3% margin of error. Add 1% to account for these “slightly more” factors and it means that anything within the polling frame is “statistically tied.”

    If we do this, we find that polls that are not “statistically tied” are going to be accurate more than 95% of the time but that is still a 1 in 20 chance of being wrong (depending on how they define the margin of error – in some cases it could be as high as 1 in 10 while in others it can be as low as 1 in 100 but the lower the chance of being wrong, the higher the margin of error).

    Also do not think that more or different polls will fix this because if all of the polls are wrong due to methodological issues, their errors will be highly correlated. Finally, all of these polls are snapshots for the particular day. Since some votes are “already in,” polls going forward need to ask NOT “if the election were to happen today” but rather “if you have already voted, please tell us who you voted for and if you have not voted, please tell us who you plan to vote for.” This is so we can reduce “voter regret” since voters cannot change their votes pos-casting.

    Ultimately, the only poll that matters is the actual vote we do at the polls.

19. Trump outperforms polls in both general election he has taken part in and now he is looking dead even with kamala…I think I know who's going to win guys

20. Dont rely on polls. Go vote for who you want no matter what. A poll showing your candidate will win shouldn't make you think that you don't have to vote. I think we need as accurate a popular vote as possible to see what the country actually wants. The electoral college may screw over the winner regardless like it has multiple times.

21. Thank you and congratulations on using "percentage points", it drives me crazy sometimes when people get it wrong

22. Remember when Hilary Clinton was winning by a landslide in every poll? Pepperidge farms remembers

23. TRUMP 2024!! LETS GOOO!!

24. You’re a hack…I know dems are working extra hard to convince voters that President Trump can’t win. But it’s not going to work.

25. Yes, Hilary Clinton won, just like the poll said.

26. Kamala Harris will win the 2024 polls okay.

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